By Máximo Steverlynck
The Tour de Ski arrived in Val di Fiemme, Italy, for its third and final stop. Tomorrow brings, famously, the the alpine climb that ends the Tour: 495m of climbing up the Alpe Cermis race course, with an average gradient of 11.6% and maximum gradient of 28 percent.
Saturday’s stage, a 15-kilometer mass start classic race, seemed to be skied with this climb at the forefront of skiers’ minds. A relatively cool pace ensued in the women’s race as they made their way around a sticky 2.5km loop six times, with the bunch staying together until the final kilometers, when it came down to a Swedish two-up sprint.
Linn Svahn (SWE) was first on the day, just 0.4 seconds ahead of Frida Karlsson (SWE) in second, and 1.6 seconds ahead of Katharina Hennig (GER). Leading the American women was Jessie Diggins, 5.7 seconds back in eighth place. She was followed closely by Rosie Brennan in twelfth, 12.6 seconds back, and Sophia Laukli in seventeenth, 23.8 seconds behind.
Frida Karlsson and Jonna Sundling asserted themselves today, starting the day in fifth and third respectively and collecting bonus seconds to finish on the 3rd and 2nd spots of the virtual podium, displacing Kerttu Niskanen into fourth. However, time gaps remain tight going into the final day, and places 2–5 are separated by just 15 seconds, making it anyone’s race.
Jessie Diggins placed 8th today, but only 5.7 seconds behind the pace. She retains her yellow jersey, with a 43-second gap to second place in the overall Tour de Ski standings. Sundling sits second there, with Karlsson one second back in third. Sundling would have to make up 43 seconds tomorrow, or Karlsson 44, to overtake Diggins for the overall Tour win.
Speaking in an audio provided by USSS, Diggins stated that she does have a fair amount of pain remaining from her crash in the 20km classic pursuit, but that she is focusing on recovery. She also finds the hip less painful in skate than in classic, which augurs well for her chances tomorrow. Hear more here:
“Wet!” said Brennan, laughing, when asked how her race was. “That describes it.” Brennan spoke to her struggles with inconsistent skis on a tough waxing day. She also, for not the first time in her career, answered a question about Jessie Diggins. Listen here:
The men’s race was similar, but even tighter. At the finish, 1st and 25th place were separated by just 15.1 seconds. Go to the video in the second slide above to see a mass of skiers stream across the finish together, shortly behind the three leaders.
The podium was decided by a three-up sprint, with Erik Valnes taking the victory, William Poromaa taking second 0.9 seconds behind him, and Cyril Fähndrich coming up third 1.1 seconds back, for his first World Cup podium against some of the biggest hitters in skiing.
The men’s overall Tour podium saw some changes, with Valnes’s win pushing him back into 2nd place overall, kicking out Henrik Dønnestad, who fell to 7th overall. Harald Østberg Amundsen comfortably retains his yellow jersey with a 1:34 gap to Erik Valnes in 2nd. Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget also retains his third-place podium position, now 1:42 behind the pace.
Today’s stage was largely defined by a lack of action, with leaders protecting their margins. Frida Karlsson was the only person in either race willing to work, as she needed the bonus seconds on offer today to have a shot at the podium.
Two environmental factors also contributed heavily to the lack of action. Firstly, conditions were extremely slow, with the kind of wet snow that creates a lot of suction on ski bases no matter what you do to them, and this was especially impactful now that techs aren’t permitted to use fluorocarbon-based waxes to break up the surface tension of the water in the snow. Slow snow favors the bunch, as it’s much more difficult to create the sort of acceleration to get separation and establish a credible breakaway.
Speaking in written comments to Nordic Insights, Laukli spoke to the skiing conditions that athletes faced, saying it was “Definitely a tough and complicated day to navigate skis. I was really psyched with kick and being able to get up all the hills since this is a course which can be a bummer without good kick. Glide struggled a bit for sure, very very slow snow so the skis were not running the quickest on the downhills, but certainly just one of those crazy condition days.”
Secondly, while originally planned for a longer course, a lack of snow forced the race onto a 2.5 km loop, which limited the opportunities for breakways further by limiting climbing to shorter contiguous sections. Longer climbs give the opportunity for athletes to break away from the pack and establish enough separation that they won’t simply be brought back by the pack on the next downhill segment.
To relate this race to cycling, this is the equivalent of a flat transfer stage with a headwind, where you won’t win the overall race but you can certainly lose it by doing something stupid, or putting too much strain into your body, putting you at a disadvantage in tomorrow’s stage. These conditions favor staying in the bunch, not wasting energy that could be used in tomorrow’s stage, where differences will be made, and not taking risks that could cause an established lead to be erased in short order.
Speaking in written comments to Nordic Insights, Zanden McMullen said “I’m feeling really good and excited to finish the Tour! The final climb should play to my strengths so I think it will be another very fun race!!”
That final climb happens tomorrow. Diggins has been favored for the overall win all week; she has 10km of skiing left before that can happen. Stay tuned.
Results: women | men | women’s TdS standings | men’s TdS standings
